Study Suggests Reducing Processed Meat Lowers Chronic Disease Risk in the USA

Researchers created a microsimulation model, called micro-Simulation of the Health Impacts of Food Transformations (mSHIFT), in a recent study that was published in The Lancet Planetary Health. The model was designed to assess the effects of lowering the consumption of processed and unprocessed meat on death rates, diabetes mellitus type 2, cardiovascular disease, and colorectal cancers in the United States (US).

Context
The two leading causes of death in the US are cancer and cardiovascular disease. Consuming meat, both processed and unprocessed, is associated with a higher risk of developing chronic diseases such type 2 diabetes and colon cancer. Nevertheless, it’s uncertain if raw meat and specific illnesses are related.

Such associations have not been found in randomised controlled trials, especially when it comes to healthy dietary patterns with moderate amounts of unprocessed meat consumption. To date, there is not enough information to draw firm conclusions.

Concerning the study
Researchers examined whether consuming less processed and unprocessed beef could lower the prevalence of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, colorectal malignancies, and mortality rates among adult US citizens in the current microsimulation study.

In order to forecast the impact of limiting consumption of both processed and unprocessed meat on mortality rates, colorectal malignancies, and diabetes mellitus type 2, the researchers developed the mSHIFT model. In order to simulate the population of the United States, they used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) carried out in the country between 2015 and 2016 and between 2017 and 2018.

In the first cohort, the researchers enrolled non-pregnant people with two-day food recall data. By merging the pertinent item codes from the Patterns Equivalents Database with the NHANES dietary-recall data, they assessed the intake of both processed and unprocessed meat. They next computed the mean percentage of processed and unprocessed meat in all the foods that respondents had reported eating on both days.

Using the Framingham risk score (FRS) for cardiovascular disease and the Cleveland Clinic’s online risk-prediction model for colorectal cancer, the researchers determined the baseline risks for both conditions. For type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases and colorectal malignancies, respectively, they used logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard regressions. Then, by contrasting the relative risks of eating processed and unprocessed beef, they raised the baseline risk estimate.

By comparing the incidences in baseline and interventional situations, the researchers were able to quantify the avoidable occurrences of fatalities, cardiovascular illnesses, colorectal malignancies, and type 2 diabetes. The scenarios included reductions of 5.0%, 10.0%, 30.0%, 50.0%, 75.0%, and 100% in the grams of processed, unprocessed, or both forms of meat consumed.

The ultimate sickness risk of each person was divided by a calibration constant determined by their demographic group to calibrate the model. Age, gender, annual family income, and ethnicity were among the demographic subgroups that the researchers evaluated for the impact of the intervention.

Outcomes
With 8,665 people in the simulated sample, there were 242,021,876 adult US inhabitants. The average age of the 8,665 participants was 50 years old, with 3,095 (36%) and 4,493 (52%) of them being non-Hispanic White. The weighted average daily intake of processed meat at baseline was 29 grams, which showed a 30.0% drop of 8.70 grams/day, while the weighted average daily intake of unprocessed meat was 47 grams, showing a 30.0% decrease of 14 grams/day.

According to the estimate, over the following 10 years, a 30% reduction in the intake of processed meat might lead to 352,900 fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, 92,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular illnesses, 53,300 fewer cases of colorectal cancer, and 16,700 fewer fatalities. A 30% reduction in the consumption of unprocessed meat might lead to a ten-year drop in mortality counts of 46,100, as well as a reduction in type 2 diabetes cases of 732,600, cardiovascular disease cases of 291,500, and colon cancer cases of 32,200.

A 30% reduction in meat consumption, whether processed or unprocessed, may lead to a reduction of 1,073,400 cases of type 2 diabetes, 382,400 cases of cardiovascular illnesses, 84,400 cases of colorectal malignancies, and 62,200 fewer deaths over a ten-year period. Researchers estimated that people who identified as non-Hispanic White, male, and aged 18–49 who lived in households with an annual income of more than $25000 but less than $55000 had the highest number of prevented occurrences of type 2 diabetes after a 10-year 30% reduction in processed-type meat intake. Males were more likely than females to have had colorectal cancer avoided.

In summary
According to the study, eating less processed beef could potentially reduce the chance of developing type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colon cancer, and death. A 30% decrease in processed meat consumption may prevent 16,700 deaths from all causes, 92,500 cases of cardiovascular disease, 53,300 cases of colorectal cancer, and 352,900 cases of type 2 diabetes.

To validate these results and ascertain the impact of reducing the consumption of processed and unprocessed meat on micronutrient intake, additional research is necessary. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans ought to advocate consuming as little processed meat as possible.

For more information: Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: a microsimulation study, The Lancet Planetary Health, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9