Back Pain is Estimated to Affect 800 Million People by 2050

Analysis of over 30 years of data shows that the number of cases of low back pain is increasing, with modeling predicting that by 2050, 843 million people will be affected by the condition, owing primarily to population growth and aging.

Researchers are afraid that the prolonged lack of a systematic strategy to back pain therapy, as well as limited treatment alternatives, will lead to a healthcare crisis, as low back pain is the biggest cause of disability in the globe.

By 2050, there will be an almost 50 percent increase in cases in Australia. Back pain cases are expected to shift, with Asia and Africa experiencing the greatest increases.

The findings are published in The Lancet Rheumatology.

“Our analysis paints a picture of growing low back pain cases globally, putting enormous pressure on our healthcare system. We need to establish a national, consistent approach to managing low back pain that is informed by research,” says lead author, Professor Manuela Ferreira from Sydney Musculoskeletal Health, an initiative of the University of Sydney, Sydney Local Health District and Northern Sydney Local Health District.

“Currently, how we have been responding to back pain has been reactive. Australia is a global leader in back pain research; we can be proactive and lead by example on back pain prevention,” said Professor Ferreira who is based at Sydney’s Kolling Institute.

The study identifies many turning points in back pain situations. Since 2017, the number of persons suffering from low back pain has surpassed half a billion.

There will be around 619 million cases of back discomfort in 2020.

Occupational variables, smoking, and being overweight all contributed to at least one-third of the disability burden associated with backpain.

A common misunderstanding is that low back pain primarily affects working-age individuals. However, the researchers claim that this study has proved that low back pain is more common in elderly persons. Females were also more likely to experience low back discomfort than males.

This is the most extensive and up-to-date data available, and it covers worldwide estimates and the contribution of GBD risk factors to low back pain for the first time. The University of Sydney, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine (healthdata.org), IHME’s international collaborators, and the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health (gmusc.com) collaborated to make this work possible.

“We also know that most available data come from high-income countries, making it sometimes hard to interpret these results for low to mid-income countries. We urgently need more population-based back pain and musculoskeletal data from countries of low to mid-income,” said senior author Professor Lyn March from Sydney Musculoskeletal Health and the Kolling Institute.

The study examined GBD data from over 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 to map the geography of back pain cases through time. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) is the most comprehensive picture of death and disability across countries, time, age, and gender.

It is also the first study to employ modeling to predict the future prevalence of back pain cases.

“Health systems need to respond to this enormous and rising burden of low back pain that is affecting people globally. Much more needs to be done to prevent low back pain and ensure timely access to care, as there are effective ways of helping people in pain” said Prof Anthony Woolf, co-chair of the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health which is calling for priority to be given to addressing the growing burden of musculoskeletal conditions.

“Ministries of health cannot continue ignoring the high prevalence of musculoskeletal conditions including low back pain. These conditions have important social and economic consequences, especially considering the cost of care. Now is the time to learn about effective strategies to address the high burden and to act” said Dr. Alarcos Cieza, Unit Head, World Health Organization, Headquarters, Geneva.

In 2018, experts (unrelated to this study) expressed their concerns in The Lancet and made recommendations, particularly about exercise and education, about the need for a shift in worldwide policy on the best method to prevent and manage low back pain in order to halt the development of improper therapies.

However, there has been little progress since then. Common therapies for low back pain have been proven to have uncertain or inadequate efficacy, including various procedures and painkillers.

According to Professor Ferreira, there is inconsistency in how health practitioners address this situations and how the healthcare system must react.

It may come as a surprise to some that current clinical guidelines for back pain treatment and management do not provide specific recommendations for older people.

“Older people have more complex medical histories and are more likely to be prescribed strong medication, including opioids for back pain management, compared to younger adults. But this is not ideal and can have a negative impact on their function and quality of life, especially as these analgesics may interfere with their other existing medications. This is just one example of why we need to update clinical guidelines to support our health professionals.”

Co-author Dr. Katie de Luca, from CQUniversity, said if the right action is not taken, this condition can become a precursor to chronic health conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and mental health conditions, invasive medical procedures, and significant disability.

“Low back pain continues to be the greatest cause of disability burden worldwide. There are substantial socio-economic consequences of this condition, and the physical and personal impact directly threatens healthy aging.”

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